Philippines projects $1.6 billion BOP surplus in 2024 on global growth

The country’s balance of payments (BOP) is expected to remain positive this year and next, fueled by a global economic upswing.

This will translate to a boost in the country’s exports and investments, as inflation shows signs of easing.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has significantly revised its BOP surplus forecast for 2024, raising it from $700 million to $1.6 billion. For 2025, the BSP now expects a surplus of $1.5 billion, reversing its earlier prediction of a deficit.

BSP director Sittie Hannisha M. Butocan attributed the revised forecasts to faster global growth, easing inflation, and recovering electronics demand

Butocan said a stronger global economy is expected to create increased demand for Philippine exports while lower inflation will improve purchasing power and potentially lead to higher spending, benefiting both domestic and foreign businesses.

The electronics sector, a key driver of Philippine exports, is expected to see a rebound in demand.

However, she noted risks from moderate growth in China, geopolitical tensions, and weather-related disruptions.

The BSP anticipates steady domestic economic growth and lower inflation. Sustained public infrastructure spending is also expected to contribute positively. However, the central bank highlighted concerns over weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth, the current high-interest rate environment, and potential adverse weather conditions.

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